Bill Kostroun/Associated Press
Let’s start by giving the Redskins the tiniest possible amount of credit: At least they didn’t overpay for Nick Foles on Monday.
Washington started this offseason in desperate need of a quarterback. Foles is exactly the type of overpriced mistake bait at which they usually nibble.
But for once, the Skins made some shrewd moves before the start of free agency.
They read the quarterback market and realized Foles was overvalued because of his perceived miraculous playoff powers. Instead, they spotted a motivated seller in Denver after the Broncos talked themselves into trading for Joe Flacco, and they pried Case Keenum loose with a restructured contract in exchange for a swap of late-round draft picks, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
It was a clever, low-cost way to downgrade their full-blown quarterback emergency to a mere pending crisis.
But the Skins only have so much shrewd and clever in them.
On Monday, Washington agreed to terms on a six-year, $84-million contract with former Giants safety Landon Collins, per Rapoport. The transaction, like the Keenum trade and most NFL news so far this offseason, will not be official until the new league year begins Wednesday afternoon.
The Wrong Way Redskins reportedly just spent $84 million, with a whopping $45 million guaranteed, on a safety. Not just any safety, mind you, but a traditional in-the-box strong safety with limitations in pass coverage. And they did so in a market where safeties are as plentiful—and should therefore be as affordable—as boxed wine at your local liquor store.
Overpaying for a quarterback like Foles doesn’t sound so bad anymore, does it?
Collins is a fine player. He’s a 25-year-old three-time Pro Bowler and is a well-regarded locker room leader with a knack for timely big plays. But the Skins just made him the highest-paid safety in history, which is spectacularly wrongheaded for many reasons:
- The Skins still don’t have a real starting quarterback.
- Since the market is flooded with free-agent safeties, players roughly as good as Collins will soon be available for a fraction of the cost.
- The Skins traded a fourth-round pick for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a similar player to Collins, midway through last season. Re-signing Clinton-Dix would have been far more cost-effective than pursuing Collins.
- The draft is full of quality safeties, which is one reason so many veterans are on the market.
- The Skins still don’t have a real starting quarterback.
- Strong safety is not a high-leverage position. The difference between a Pro Bowler and your average starter at strong safety has a minuscule impact on a team’s win-loss record.
- The Skins still don’t have a real starting quarterback.
- The Skins are cap-strapped. According to Over the Cap, they had only $13.3 million in cap space before adding Collins’ gut-buster to the books.
- You get the idea about the quarterback situation.
Washington is now poised to enter the 2019 season with Keenum and career backup Colt McCoy battling for the starting quarterback job and little to no money available to upgrade the offense because it just broke the bank for one of the easiest positions to fill.
Case Keenum will cost Washington only $3.5 million next season but may not make enough of a difference on the field to make the deal feel like a bargain.Justin Edmonds/Getty Images
It’s a completely backward way to build a roster, which means it’s a typical move for this organization.
The Skins don’t do the things that more successful NFL franchises do. They don’t anticipate needs or plan a few years (or even one year) down the road. They don’t appear to budget, place values on positions based on impact or scarcity of talent or use analytics the way other teams do. They don’t apply common sense the way sensible people do.
Instead, they make splashy, expensive, seat-of-the-pants decisions, then work backward to cobble them together into something that looks like a football team.
The Collins signing doesn’t solve any problems, but it does create a few. For starters, Washington will now have to shed some salaries to fit Collins under the cap.
That means controversial linebacker Reuben Foster is likely to be gone without ever playing a down for the team (try not to weep). Productive linebacker Zach Brown is also probably on his way out.
What about in-house free agents like slot receiver Jamison Crowder or oft-used reserve tackle Ty Nsekhe? With Crowder reportedly headed to the Jets, per NFL Network’s Mike Garofolo, we can add “re-sign in-house free agents” to the list of things the Skins don’t do like other teams. And even without Crowder, the Washington doesn’t have enough cap room left to re-sign anyone at market value.
The Collins signing will leave the Skins without the flexibility to upgrade other positions. That means they will almost certainly need to use the 15th overall pick in the draft on a skill-position player or an upgrade/reinforcement on the offensive line. That likely takes away the one slim chance they have of acquiring a quarterback of the future.
Collins, now the highest-paid safety in NFL history, ranked 44th out of 101 qualified safeties last season, according to Pro Football Focus’ grading system.Rob Leiter/Getty Images
The Skins somehow endured two full seasons in the Kirk Cousins Franchise-Tag Friend Zone without drafting a young quarterback to hedge their bets or provide negotiating leverage. They traded for Alex Smith to get out of their lease with Cousins but still couldn’t be bothered to draft a successor to the then-33-year-old journeyman for whom they shelled out cornerback Kendall Fuller (now a Chiefs starter), a third-round pick and $55 million guaranteed.
Smith suffered a tragic, career-threatening injury last season, but Washington would be in the same predicament this season if Smith had merely turned out to be a disappointing, overpriced product of another team’s system. That’s precisely what Keenum turned out to be, which is why the Broncos were so happy to move on from him.
The Skins should either be finding outside-the-box quarterback solutions—Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, spreading rumors that Kyler Murray lied about his height, etc.—in an attempt to remain competitive or shedding veteran salary and going full Moneyball in the hope of someday landing Tua Tagovailoa to lead a roster that was already loaded with Alabama alums before Collins’ arrival.
Adding Collins at a premium price while the quarterback situation remains so bleak doesn’t accomplish anything except cause budget headaches, generate headlines and make it look like the Washington front office is trying hard when it is actually just throwing paint at a wall.
That’s what makes the Collins signing such a vintage Washington move. Overpaying and underthinking are the two things the Wrong Way Redskins have always been good at.
This is the organization that gave Albert Haynesworth a seven-year, $100 million deal to play a position he did not like in a scheme he did not fit. This is the organization that traded for Donovan McNabb even though then-head coach Mike Shanahan didn’t want him, and then traded up for Robert Griffin III even though Shanahan wasn’t too keen on him, either.
Like Albert Haynesworth and a handful of previous free-agent additions, Collins’ big contract may prove difficult for Washington to justify considering the team’s other flaws.Al Bello/Getty Images
This is the organization that gave cornerback Josh Norman a five-year, $75 million contract but initially lined him up on one side of the field while star receivers french-fried lesser cornerbacks on the opposite side. It’s the organization that couldn’t sign Cousins to a long-term deal but couldn’t wean itself from him in the short term.
This is an organization that acquires expensive big names first, then figures out what it can do with them later.
Don’t bother waiting to see how the Collins signing plays out. Collins could have the best seasons of his life, and this will simply be another example of the Skins doing things backward and spinning their wheels as a result.
But they didn’t overpay for a veteran quarterback like Foles this time.
That would have made more sense.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@MikeTanier.
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