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There are several different approaches to team building in the NBA, but every one of them boils down to acquiring superstar talent. Whether through the draft, free agency or trade, organizations that plan to compete for a championship know they need to get ahold of premium players.
Several will be on the move this summer, and that means the league-wide power structure is about to endure a significant shakeup.
The transactional side of the NBA is now as newsworthy as the games themselves. The players on this list have all been the subject of rumors since before the 2018-19 season tipped off, so their presence here is no surprise. The only unexpected result would be if one or two of them actually stayed put.
Based on team situation, reporting throughout the year and a little gut instinct, these are the superstars most likely to be sporting different jerseys come October 2019.
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The easiest way to explain Anthony Davis’ inclusion here would be to say: “Please refer to anything that happened after Jan. 28, 2019, which is when ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported AD’s trade request.”
In light of the back-and-forth leaks from the Lakers and Pelicans between the request and the trade deadline and the charade of New Orleans playing Davis sporadically ever since, the greatest obstacle to getting AD out of town may be the lack of exit routes. He’s already torched every bridge, which, if you’re going to do that, you should at least wait until you’ve crossed them.
With former general manager and reluctant call picker-upper Dell Demps no longer in charge of trading Davis, it will be easier for New Orleans to make a move this summer. Whoever winds up with Demps’ old job will have to know that trading Davis is the organization’s top priority. Stubborn refusal to engage, while understandable from Demps earlier this year, won’t be an option for his successor.
Davis’ departure is practically complete already. All parties involved know he wants out, so now the only questions are: Where’s he going, and what will the Pelicans get in return?
Prediction: Davis winds up with the Lakers via trade. There’s no telling now whether Los Angeles will have the best offer, but Davis and his reps will redouble their efforts to communicate AD won’t re-sign anywhere else, diminishing interest from the Bostons and New Yorks of the world.
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Since before the 2018-19 season started, Kevin Durant‘s free agency has been on center stage.
“I feel like I belong here. I feel like I mix with this team, I mesh with this team well,” Kevin Durant told Nick Friedell of ESPN at Warriors Media Day in October. “With that being said, I really don’t know what’s going to happen this summer.”
That non-commitment ignited a spark that grew into a conflagration when Durant and Draymond Green got into a heated on-court argument in November. According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, Green raised KD’s impending free agency during the shouting match, which had been a “simmering issue” with the team.
“With what was said, there is already no way Durant is coming back,” one player told The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson II shortly afterward.
Things calmed down after that, but Durant has been annoyed by the media’s free-agency fixation all season. After the Knicks traded Kristaps Porzingis, clearing the way for major offseason signings, he mentioned them unprompted.
Earlier in March, a blowout loss to the Celtics triggered more unrest.
“There are members of the organization concerned that Durant’s behavior is a sign that he’s already got one foot out the door,” Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes reported.
“He’s part of [the team] right now,” Green told The Athletic’s Sam Amick about Durant’s free agency. “Whatever happens this summer happens. Whatever the hell he do, he does. If he go, he go. If he stay, he stay. But while he’s here, we’re going to win another championship. It’s just that simple. Nothing else matters.”
Way back in June 2018, general manager Bob Myers told reporters Durant could have “whatever he wants” on his next contract with the team. Based on the last several months, it’s impossible to be sure Durant wants anything at all from the Warriors.
This is a “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” situation. And there is an awful lot of smoke.
Prediction: Durant signs a max contract with the Knicks.
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First, Kyrie Irving was in, telling Boston Celtics season-ticket holders in October, “If you guys will have me back, I plan on re-signing here.”
Then, he wasn’t necessarily out, but the depth of commitment he expressed in earlier comments seemed…shallower.
“Ask me July 1,” he told reporters when questioned about his free agency in February. And then, as if begging for nonstop aggregation, he said, “I don’t owe anybody s–t.”
Irving can opt out of his contract this summer and should expect max offers from the Knicks and Celtics. If he stays put, Boston could trade for Anthony Davis, who’d probably be more likely to re-sign in 2020 if Irving were locked into a deal as his running mate. If Irving bolts, Boston might not want to risk trading what it would take to get Davis without any assurance of keeping him long term.
Suffice it to say, the Celtics are heavily incentivized to re-sign Irving if they can.
Irving has been only intermittently supportive of teammates from the bench this year, sometimes appearing engaged, others visibly frustrated.
In early March, The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor reported:
“Sources around the team told me that Irving’s persona has changed too: He’s become disengaged and detached from those around the team. There is talk that Irving’s friendships on the team start and end with [Jayson] Tatum, with whom he shares an agent. Two sources peg Irving’s change in demeanor to early February, around the time he was asked about the possibility of joining the New York Knicks next season.”
The mercurial Irving will head into free agency with several options available to him. Good luck trying to guess his plans.
Prediction: Irving joins Durant in New York on a max contract.
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ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported in December that Raptors officials had seen a Clippers representative at “75 percent” of the team’s games.
In January, Marc Stein of The New York Times also spotlighted the Clips’ connection to Leonard, writing: “A genuine confidence about their Kawhi chances emanates from the Clippers every time I’m around them. They obviously can’t say it for public consumption, but the sense I get is that the Clippers see themselves as the favorites for Leonard.”
Leonard may have a foot out the door, but he hasn’t let that impact his performance. Though he’s still not suiting up for both ends of back-to-back sets, the 27-year-old is averaging career highs in minutes, points and rebounds per game. When he plays for the Raptors, he plays.
As you’d expect from the league’s most taciturn superstar, Leonard hasn’t said much about his feelings on free agency—unless you want to overanalyze his distaste for Toronto’s climate.
The Clippers have ample cap space, role players who’ll fit well around a ball-dominant star and the allure of home for Leonard, a southern California native.
If the Raptors win a ring in June, perhaps that will be enough to keep him. Otherwise, it sure feels like a Leonard-Clippers union is inevitable.
Prediction: Leonard quietly (duh) signs with the Clippers on a four-year max deal with a player option on the third season.
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Kemba Walker isn’t a superstar on the level of the other four players we’ve listed, but he’s a three-time All-Star and the only thing keeping the Charlotte Hornets relevant.
Which makes his potential departure a big deal.
The Charlotte Observer‘s Rick Bonnell reported Walker would be the Dallas Mavericks’ top free-agent target this summer. And while another franchise wanting Walker doesn’t necessarily mean the 28-year-old’s days in Charlotte are done, the availability of a desirable landing spot should make the Hornets nervous.
Charlotte is on pace to miss the playoffs for a third straight year, ESPN slotted the Hornets 30th in future power rankings, and the new max deal it’d take to keep Walker would shove the franchise into the luxury tax.
If the Hornets pay what Walker is worth on the market, they’ll effectively consign themselves to at least one more season on the mediocrity treadmill before beginning a rebuild through the draft or free agency in the summer of 2020, shortly after Walker turns 30.
If Walker were 25 and still on the upswing of his career, perhaps it’d make sense for him to be patient with the Hornets. But his prime won’t last much longer, and he’s already given enough to an organization that has failed at every turn to surround him with the talent he deserves.
Prediction: Walker joins Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in Dallas.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate through games played Monday, March 25. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders.
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