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Heading into the second round of the 2019 men’s NCAA tournament, the chalk has largely held up. All 12 teams with top-three seeds advanced to this weekend’s March Madness action.
But no Big Dance is complete without some drama.
The early front-runner for the Cinderella story of the year is the No. 12-seeded Murray State Racers, the Ohio Valley Conference champions who have a potential top-two NBA draft pick. Ja Morant notched a triple-double in Murray State’s triumph over the fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles in the West Region on Thursday.
Along with No. 13 UC Irvine, 12 seeds Oregon and Liberty are headed to the second round. It must be something in the California water because all three teams are in the San Jose regional.
Still, Bleacher Report’s experts―David Gardner, David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Elliott Pohnl―have high expectations for the favorites in the second round, which begins Saturday.
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Matchup: No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 3 LSU (East Region)
Details: Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS) in Jacksonville, Florida
Maryland Wins If…
The Terps dominate the rebounding battle and successfully control the pace. LSU ranks 64th nationally in tempo, per KenPom.com, but is most vulnerable when forced to play a methodical game. Maryland boasts the seventh-best rebound rate in the country at 56 percent.
LSU Wins If…
It protects the ball offensively and prevents Maryland from owning the glass. Fortunately for the Tigers, their opponent is among the nation’s worst at creating havoc. Maryland has the second-worst opponent turnover rate (12.3). The Terps forced only five turnovers in their 79-77 first-round victory over 11th-seeded Belmont.
Most Important Players Are…
Jalen Smith for Maryland and Tremont Waters for LSU. Smith is the sidekick to sophomore center Bruno Fernando, who’s racked up 21 double-doubles this season. Maryland is 18-3 when Smith scores 10-plus points but 4-7 otherwise. Waters averages LSU-high marks of 15.1 points, 6.0 assists and 2.9 steals per game.
Predictions
David Gardner: LSU
David Kenyon: LSU
Kerry Miller: Maryland
Elliott Pohnl: Maryland
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Matchup: No. 7 Wofford vs. No. 2 Kentucky (Midwest Region)
Details: Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS) in Jacksonville, Florida
Wofford Wins If…
Fletcher Magee is a flamethrower from the perimeter, and Nathan Hoover provides a few three-pointers too. Magee is Division I’s leader in threes, and Hoover shoots 46.1 percent from deep. The Terriers aren’t as physically impressive as Kentucky, but the SEC squad is a paltry 203rd nationally in three-point defense.
Kentucky Wins If…
The defense forces Wofford to win inside the arc. Although the Wildcats may be without star forward PJ Washington (foot injury), they’re the seventh-stingiest two-point defense in the country. Kentucky is 4-4 when surrendering at least 10 triples this season.
Additionally, it would help if Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson have a larger-than-normal impact from the outside. The ‘Cats have the 13th-lowest three-point attempt rate, so it’s essential they are efficient in those limited shots.
Most Important Players Are…
Fletcher Magee for Wofford and Tyler Herro for Kentucky. Magee has never seen a look he didn’t like, but his gravity will create extra opportunities for his teammates. Herro, along with Ashton Hagans, will be tasked with contesting those attempts on the perimeter and containing a terrific group of Wofford shooters.
Predictions
David Gardner: Kentucky
David Kenyon: Wofford
Kerry Miller: Kentucky
Elliott Pohnl: Wofford
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Matchup: No. 10 Florida vs. No. 2 Michigan (West Region)
Details: Saturday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS) in Des Moines, Iowa
Florida Wins If…
The Gators take advantage of the seemingly inevitable cold spurt for the Michigan offense. Florida isn’t impressive on the scoring end, given its 49.9 effective field-goal percentage that ranks 233rd nationally. Florida’s 33.3 three-point clip is 233rd too.
Although both offenses prefer super-slow tempos, Florida is 8-14 when the opponent scores more than 60 points. That’s an exceptionally low bar for Michigan to clear.
Michigan Wins If…
It doesn’t fall victim to an aggressive defense. Florida ranks 26th in opponent turnover rate, while Michigan is fourth-best in turnover rate offensively. As long as the Wolverines aren’t giving away possessions, Florida’s mediocre scoring attack will be forced to create quality chances against a half-court defense that rarely allows them.
Most Important Players Are…
Jalen Hudson for Florida and Zavier Simpson for Michigan. Part of Florida’s big issue is the lack of a reliable creator on offense. Hudson has that upside, but he doesn’t show it consistently. Simpson is one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders and also facilitates for the Wolverines, averaging 6.7 assists.
Predictions
David Gardner: Michigan
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Elliott Pohnl: Florida
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Matchup: No. 12 Murray State vs. No. 4 Florida State (West Region)
Details: Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT) in Hartford, Connecticut
Murray State Wins If…
Ja Morant does Ja Morant things, and the Racers can deal with Florida State’s size inside. Morant has the talent to control a game, evidenced by his 17-point, 16-assist, 11-rebound showing in the first round. The point guard’s craftiness can atone for the major difference in stature, but that’s a real concern for Murray State.
Only three members of the rotation are taller than 6’4″, while FSU’s second-shortest rotation player is the same height.
Florida State Wins If…
The offense isn’t forced to win from the perimeter. Not only do the Seminoles hit a meager 33.4 percent of their long-range shots―230th nationally―but the Racers also have the fourth-best three-point defense. Again, FSU has a clear advantage in height. It needs to matter.
Most Important Players Are…
Morant for Murray State and Mfiondu Kabengele for Florida State. Morant’s inclusion is obvious; he’s the potential No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft on June 20. Conversely, the 6’10” Kabengele was the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year this season and gathered a 21-point, 10-rebound double-double in FSU’s opener against Vermont.
Predictions
David Gardner: Murray State
David Kenyon: Florida State
Kerry Miller: Murray State
Elliott Pohnl: Murray State
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Matchup: No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (West Region)
Details: Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) in Salt Lake City
Baylor Wins If…
The Bears don’t allow Gonzaga to live in transition. According to Hoop-Math.com, 32 percent of the Zags’ initial field-goal attempts come in transition, and their 64.3 effective field-goal percentage on the break is tied for the third-best mark.
Baylor is 296th in tempo, per KenPom, and allows the 40th-lowest rate of initial transition attempts, per Hoop-Math.com.
Gonzaga Wins If…
In addition to playing fast, the Bulldogs are competent on the glass. Both teams rank in the top 20 nationally in rebound rate, but Gonzaga is 24-0 when it secures at least 52 percent of available rebounds. Baylor, meanwhile, is 4-8 when below 52 percent.
Most Important Players Are…
Rui Hachimura for Gonzaga and Makai Mason for Baylor. Hachimura is among the most efficient players in the country, scoring 20.1 points per game while shooting 60.7 percent from the floor. Mason is Baylor’s leader in points and assists per game (14.9 and 3.3, respectively) and is second in three-point percentage (36.7).
Predictions
David Gardner: Gonzaga
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Elliott Pohnl: Gonzaga
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Matchup: No. 10 Minnesota vs. No. 2 Michigan State (East Region)
Details: Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET (CBS) in Des Moines, Iowa
Minnesota Wins If…
The defense does a better job of forcing turnovers than usual. The Golden Gophers had just five takeaways in the opening round, and they are 3-8 when their opponents have fewer than 10 turnovers.
Minnesota also needs to focus on winning the rebound battle. Nine of the team’s 13 losses have happened when the Gophers failed to collect at least 50 percent of all missed shots.
Michigan State Wins If…
Minnesota doesn’t suddenly become an elite perimeter-shooting team. Michigan State’s three-point defense is well above-average, but the Spartans are 5-5 when the opponent hits 37.5 percent or more of their triples. Otherwise, head coach Tom Izzo’s club is 24-1.
Most Important Players Are…
Jordan Murphy for Minnesota and Cassius Winston for Michigan State. Murphy averages a double-double but also has 6.9 free-throw attempts per game. His presence inside is crucial to Minnesota’s success. On the other hand, MSU’s offense runs through Winston on the perimeter. He’s amassed 19.1 points and 7.5 assists per game.
Predictions
David Gardner: Michigan State
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Elliott Pohnl: Michigan State
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Matchup: No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 3 Purdue (South Region)
Details: Saturday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT) in Hartford, Connecticut
Villanova Wins If…
The three-point shooters are clicking. Villanova has the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate in the country but is just 126th with a 35.4 clip from downtown. While the Wildcats are 14-1 when they connect on 35 percent of their trifectas, anything below the mark can be trouble. Villanova is 12-8 in those contests.
Purdue Wins If…
Carsen Edwards shoulders the scoring load yet does so efficiently. The standout junior has a team-high average of 21.3 points per game, but he’s shooting a meager 23.7 from downtown since the beginning of February―while still attempting 9.5 per game.
Additionally, Purdue has a notable edge in the rebounding department. Villanova is a decent rebounding team, but the Boilermakers are slightly more effective on the offensive glass. Capitalizing on second-chance opportunities will be vital.
Most Important Players Are…
Phil Booth for Villanova and Edwards for Purdue. Not only is Booth the Wildcats’ leading scorer and passer, but he’s also an elite defender. He’ll likely be tasked with defending Purdue’s star. Edwards must have an efficient day; because both offenses prefer methodical tempos, possessions will be limited.
Predictions
David Gardner: Villanova
David Kenyon: Villanova
Kerry Miller: Villanova
Elliott Pohnl: Villanova
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Matchup: No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 4 Kansas (Midwest Region)
Details: Saturday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS) in Salt Lake City
Auburn Wins If…
The Tigers wreak havoc on an offense that can struggle with turnovers. Auburn has the best takeaway rate in the nation, while the Jayhawks are a purely average 170th in giveaways. For good measure, Kansas is 197th in opponents’ effective field-goal percentage in transition, per Hoop-Math.com.
Kansas Wins If…
Just as it did against Northeastern, Kansas attacks the rim. Auburn ranks 205th in two-point defense, and the Jayhawks shot 66.7 percent inside the arc during the first round.
But that interior presence must complement a strong effort defensively. Auburn’s three-point attempt rate is the eighth-highest in the country, and head coach Bruce Pearl’s Tigers convert at a tremendous 37.7 percent rate. If Auburn catches fire, Kansas might not have the shooters to keep up.
Most Important Players Are…
Dedric Lawson for Kansas and Jared Harper for Auburn. Lawson averages a double-double and is the Jayhawks’ best three-point threat now that Lagerald Vick is no longer with the team. Harper and his 5.7 assists per game will be the key to breaking down Kansas.
Predictions
David Gardner: Kansas
David Kenyon: Auburn
Kerry Miller: Auburn
Elliott Pohnl: Auburn
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Matchup: No. 10 Iowa vs. No. 2 Tennessee (South Region)
Details: Sunday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Iowa Wins If…
The three-point brigade is out in full force. Tennessee has an undeniable knack for scoring in the paint, and that’s a problem for Iowa’s horrendous two-point defense; it ranks 316th nationally. But the Hawkeyes have four players who attempt three-plus triples per night, and each boasts a conversion clip of 38-plus percent.
Iowa cannot afford to get worked on the glass either. While Tyler Cook is the leading rebounder, the Hawkeyes must get a complete team effort to hold off the Vols.
Tennessee Wins If…
It’s not a complete disaster on the perimeter. During the first-round win, the Vols surrendered a 15-of-29 three-point mark to Colgate. Fortunately for Tennessee, it managed to bury nine threes―its fourth-highest total of the season―to atone for that.
The Vols must be careful to avoid foul trouble too. Iowa owns the second-highest free-throw/field-goal rate in the country.
Most Important Players Are…
Cook for Iowa and Admiral Schofield for Tennessee. As mentioned earlier, Cook is Iowa’s top rebounder. He also averages a team-high 14.9 points to go along with 2.4 assists per game. Schofield isn’t the star, but his 19 points buoyed the Vols in Round 1. And against a perimeter-led Iowa squad, Schofield’s superb defense can eliminate one option.
Predictions
David Gardner: Tennessee
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Elliott Pohnl: Tennessee
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Matchup: No. 9 Washington vs. No. 1 North Carolina (Midwest Region)
Details: Sunday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Washington Wins If…
It slows down the pace by hitting shots and forcing turnovers. While that combination is basic, it allowed 16th-seeded Iona to take a surprise halftime lead on North Carolina. With a tempo ranked 257th nationally, per KenPom, the Huskies could frustrate UNC.
But most importantly, that needs to happen for 40 minutes.
North Carolina Wins If…
Zone defense doesn’t cause unnecessary issues. Washington head coach Mike Hopkins spent more than two decades as a Syracuse assistant for Jim Boeheim. The Tar Heels should know what they’re about to encounter in the second round.
As long as UNC can push the tempo with some regularity, UW’s uninspiring offense probably can’t keep up on the scoreboard.
Most Important Players Are…
Matisse Thybulle for Washington and Cameron Johnson for North Carolina. Thybulle racked up eight combined steals and blocks in the first-round triumph over the Utah State Aggies, and that ability to end possessions will be critical for UW to slow down the pace. Johnson is an elite spot-up shooter, which is especially valuable against a zone.
Predictions
David Gardner: UNC
David Kenyon: UNC
Kerry Miller: UNC
Elliott Pohnl: UNC
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Matchup: No. 9 UCF vs. No. 1 Duke (East Region)
Details: Sunday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbia, South Carolina
UCF Wins If…
The Knights force the No. 1 seed to win from the outside. Duke owns the nation’s fifth-highest two-point percentage but is the 14th-worst three-point shooting squad. UCF center Tacko Fall, who is 7’6″, had better put his stature to good use.
Fortunately for UCF, he racked up 13 points, 18 rebounds and five blocks Friday. Fall will be coming off his best game of the year.
Duke Wins If…
Zion Williamson and Co. force UCF to defend in transition. Despite a tempo that ranks 309th, per KenPom, the Knights are still 279th in opponent initial field-goal attempts on the break, according to Hoop-Math.com. If Duke has space to run, look out below.
After all, few teams can handle the Blue Devils’ athleticism. And by that, yes, we mostly mean Williamson.
Most Important Players Are…
Fall for UCF and RJ Barrett for Duke. We highlighted Fall’s impact above; UCF also needs a quality showing from Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins, the team’s best three-point shooter. Zion basically has a 25-point floor at this point. The Blue Devils are tough to beat if Barrett complements the superstar freshman with 25 of his own.
Predictions
David Gardner: Duke
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Elliott Pohnl: Duke
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Matchup: No. 6 Buffalo vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (West Region)
Details: Sunday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Buffalo Wins If…
The team manages to increase the tempo steadily throughout the game. The Bulls are plenty effective in half-court sets but most productive in transition. The problem is they run at the 10th-fastest pace in the country, per KenPom, while Texas Tech is 222nd.
Buffalo is not particularly efficient from three-point range (33.6 percent, 223rd nationally) but ordinarily shoots a bunch of them. If the Bulls have an above-average day from distance, they’ll put immense pressure on the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech Wins If…
It wins in transition. While the Bulls can survive if their opponent slows down their scoring attack, Texas Tech usually isn’t much of a threat going quickly the other way. During the first-round win over the Northern Kentucky Norse, the Red Raiders forced 17 turnovers and earned a few easy buckets to seal a comfortable result.
Most Important Players Are…
Nick Perkins for Buffalo and Jarrett Culver for Texas Tech. Buffalo will lean on its backcourt but needs Perkins to provide a secondary option down low when ball movement is lacking. Culver dominated Friday’s clash with 29 points, eight rebounds and seven assists and is a surging NBA prospect.
Predictions
David Gardner: Texas Tech
David Kenyon: Buffalo
Kerry Miller: Buffalo
Elliott Pohnl: Texas Tech
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Matchup: No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech (East Region)
Details: Sunday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
Liberty Wins If…
The offense is able to repeat its sensational long-range showing from the opening round. Liberty shot 12-of-25 from beyond the arc, highlighted by five triples from Caleb Homesley. The junior scored a career-high 30 points in the upset of Mississippi State.
Giveaways could extinguish the Flames’ chances of winning too. Virginia Tech ranks 31st in opponent turnover rate and forced 12 in the first half alone of its victory over 13th-seeded Saint Louis.
Virginia Tech Wins If…
Liberty isn’t a factor on the offensive glass. The Flames are just 256th in the category anyway, so it might not seem particularly significant. But since Virginia Tech forces the second-highest rate of three-point attempts, loose balls should be a regular sight.
Combine that with VT’s normal output from the perimeter, and the ACC school could earn a comfortable win.
Most Important Players Are…
Homesley for Liberty and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for Virginia Tech. Scottie James is Liberty’s marquee player but operates in the post; the Flames must have a terrific day on the outside. Alexander-Walker leads the Hokies in total points, assists and steals while shooting better than 38 percent from long range.
Predictions
David Gardner: Virginia Tech
David Kenyon: Virginia Tech
Kerry Miller: Liberty
Elliott Pohnl: Virginia Tech
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Sean Rayford/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Virginia (South Region)
Details: Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET (truTV) in Columbia, South Carolina
Oklahoma Wins If…
The Sooners have an atypical night and control the rebounding battle. After clipping Ole Miss in the first round, they’ve notched a rebound rate of at least 50 percent in 16 of 33 games. Oklahoma is 14-2 in those outings but 6-11 otherwise.
Long-range efficiency is also a critical part of upsetting Virginia. Since the Sooners are just 196th nationally in that department, they’ll need to break that trend.
Virginia Wins If…
A slow start doesn’t plague the team…again. The Gardner-Webb Bulldogs jumped out to a 12-point lead on the ACC regular-season champions, who ultimately took control of the game after the nerve-wracking first half.
On paper, Virginia is the heavy favorite practically across the board. As long as the Wahoos aren’t committing senseless turnovers, ice-cold from three or inept on the glass, they’ll be OK. But we know better than to overlook outliers with UVA, right?
Most Important Players Are…
Brady Manek for Oklahoma and Kyle Guy for Virginia. Christian James is the leader of the Sooners offense, but OU needs a complementary scorer against the tremendous Cavaliers defense. Guy trudged to a 2-of-8 mark with eight points against Gardner-Webb yet has explosive scoring potential when he’s a factor on the perimeter.
Predictions
David Gardner: Oklahoma
David Kenyon: Virginia
Kerry Miller: Virginia
Elliott Pohnl: Virginia
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Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 11 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Houston (Midwest Region)
Details: Sunday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Ohio State Wins If…
The rebounding battle clearly favors the Buckeyes. Not only have Houston’s three losses included a total rebound rate below 52 percent, but Ohio State is also 5-12 when failing to reach the mark.
Houston is particularly active gathering its own missed shots, ranking 22nd in offensive rebound rate. Yes, the Buckeyes need to hit some threes, but limiting Houston to one opportunity on offense will be vital to their pursuit of an upset.
Houston Wins If…
It’s as productive as usual on the glass while winning the perimeter. The Cougars are only 103rd in three-point percentage, but that’s still 87 spots higher than Ohio State. Defensively, Houston’s 27.6 clip allowed is nothing short of stellar (and second nationally).
Foul trouble is a concern for Houston, especially since the Buckeyes shoot a decent percentage at the line. But if the Cougars aren’t providing free trips to the stripe, they should be in good shape.
Most Important Players Are…
Kaleb Wesson for Ohio State and Corey Davis Jr. for Houston. Wesson amassed 21 points in the first-round win, and the Buckeyes improved to 14-2 when he scores 15-plus. Davis buried seven threes, finishing with 26 points and six assists in a rout of the Georgia State Panthers.
Predictions
David Gardner: Houston
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Elliott Pohnl: Houston
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Matchup: No. 13 UC Irvine vs. No. 12 Oregon (South Region)
Details: Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
UC Irvine Wins If…
Max Hazzard puts the Anteaters on his back. In December, he racked up 10 three-pointers in a win over Denver. Repeating that performance is improbable, of course. But UC Irvine is thin on long-range weapons, and Oregon has the 11th-best perimeter defense in the nation. Hazzard must be effective.
The Ducks are vulnerable when they’re outmatched on the boards too. Nine of their 12 losses happened when they failed to grab at least 50 percent of all available rebounds.
Oregon Wins If…
It manages to score inside consistently. UC Irvine is the country’s leader in two-point defense, and Oregon’s 34.3 percent mark from beyond the arc is just 188th. The Ducks have a few respectable shooters but are prone to massive swings in efficiency.
Since both programs have slow tempos, Oregon can earn a major advantage by winning the turnover battle. The Ducks rank 52nd in opponent turnover rate, while UC Irvine is 288th.
Most Important Players Are…
Hazzard for UC Irvine and Louis King for Oregon. While we already highlighted Hazzard’s upside as a shooter, King is the biggest reason for the Ducks’ late-season turnaround. The freshman leads Oregon’s healthy players with 13.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.
Predictions
David Gardner: UC Irvine
David Kenyon: Oregon
Kerry Miller: Oregon
Elliott Pohnl: Oregon
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