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Elise Amendola/Associated Press
Upsets were in short supply on Thursday in the the 2019 NCAA men’s basketball tournament, but Friday brings 16 more games and the chalk may start to fade.
Day 2 action will include top-seeded Duke and North Carolina hitting the court for the first time, with fellow No. 1 Virginia returning to the tournament after last year’s stunningly early exit.
Check in here for the first-round previews and predictions from Bleacher Report’s David Gardner, David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Elliott Pohnl. If you missed any of the Day 1 action, scroll down a bit further to get caught up.
Keep this tab open, bookmarked or both, and refresh often for updates and recaps. The predictions will be replaced with postgame analysis shortly after each game ends.
Predictions written by Kerry Miller.
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Jarron CumberlandMichael Hickey/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 10 Iowa (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Cincinnati Wins If…
It controls the pace and handles its business on offense. Iowa likes to push the tempo, especially when it has the ball. Cincinnati is much more methodical on both ends of the floor and will have a big advantage if it can force Iowa to play a half-court game.
On offense, the Bearcats aren’t great shooters, but they usually score a lot thanks to top-five rankings in both offensive rebound percentage and percentage of steals allowed. Opposing defenses have a hard time ending possessions against Cincinnati, and Iowa already struggles to wrap up defensive possessions against most teams.
Iowa Wins If…
It finally plays well on the road. The Hawkeyes knocked off Michigan and Iowa State at home, but they were winless in six games away from home against the Big Ten’s NCAA tournament teams, and they came within 15 points of winning only one of those games.
This technically isn’t a road game. Columbus isn’t much more than a hop, skip and a jump away from Cincinnati, though. Iowa fans will be clearly outnumbered by Cincinnati’s supporters.
Most Important Players Are…
Jarron Cumberland for Cincinnati and Jordan Bohannon for Iowa. Cincinnati has a lot of inconsistent scorers, but Cumberland is the lone Bearcat who comes up with several big buckets in every game. The Hawkeyes will need to rain in threes to overcome this defense, and Bohannon is the best in that department.
Predictions
David Gardner: Cincinnati
David Kenyon: Cincinnati
Kerry Miller: Cincinnati
Elliott Pohnl: Cincinnati
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Breein TyreeMichael Hickey/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV) in Columbia, South Carolina
Ole Miss Wins If…
Oklahoma doesn’t suddenly become a three-point machine. Opponents shoot 37.2 percent from three-point range against Ole Miss, which is a major red flag. That is the worst mark among all tournament teams—even the No. 16 seeds. But the Sooners are average from distance and well below-average in regard to how much they depend on threes offensively.
Oklahoma has made 10 or more triples only once in its last 23 games, averaging 6.1 makes at a 32.0 percent clip during that three-month span. Six triples won’t do the trick in this contest.
Oklahoma Wins If…
It keeps Ole Miss off the free-throw line. One of the few things the Rebels do well is convert on their one-point attempts, shooting 78.3 percent for the season. Even the worst free-throw shooter on the team (KJ Buffen) still makes nearly 70 percent of his freebies. Any foul with Ole Miss in the bonus is liable to turn into two points.
However, Oklahoma is one of the best teams at avoiding fouls, ranking seventh in defensive free-throw rate. Only two of the Sooners’ last 14 opponents attempted 18 or more free throws, and both games were against the notoriously physical West Virginia Mountaineers. Ole Miss is good from the line, but it isn’t anywhere near as good at drawing fouls as WVU is.
Most Important Players Are…
Breein Tyree for Ole Miss and Brady Manek for Oklahoma. Tyree is the Rebel who does the best job of drawing fouls, and he makes 83.1 percent of his free throws. He is also their leader in threes. Manek is Oklahoma’s versatile big man who defends well without fouling. If the Sooners need threes, he’ll be responsible for a few of them.
Predictions
David Gardner: Oklahoma
David Kenyon: Oklahoma
Kerry Miller: Oklahoma
Elliott Pohnl: Ole Miss
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Jarrett CulverDavid K Purdy/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Northern Kentucky (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Texas Tech Wins If…
Jarrett Culver and at least one other Red Raider come to play. That isn’t to say Texas Tech could win a two-on-five game here, but if Davide Moretti, Matt Mooney or Tariq Owens put up at least 17 points along with Culver’s 20-plus, Northern Kentucky likely won’t be able to keep pace.
Against this Norse defense, that isn’t a big ask. They have allowed at least 81 points in four of their last eight games and don’t excel at anything in particular on that end of the floor.
Northern Kentucky Wins If…
Texas Tech’s late-season struggles on defense continue. For most of the year, the Red Raiders were the toughest team to score against. It wasn’t until their 18th game of the season that an opponent averaged one point per possession against them. But they gave up 73 points in the regular-season finale at Iowa State and proceeded to let West Virginia score 79 in a Big 12 tournament loss to the Mountaineers.
Northern Kentucky has scorers, too. Three Norse averaged at least 14 points per game, including big man Drew McDonald. If there are cracks in that defense, these guys may find them.
Most Important Players Are…
Tariq Owens for Texas Tech and McDonald for Northern Kentucky. Owens is the heart and soul of this defense, blocking shots on the regular. He has often dealt with foul trouble over the past two months, though. McDonald hasn’t rediscovered his shooting touch since missing a game late in the year with nagging injuries. In the Horizon tournament, he scored 50 points on 51 shots, which won’t cut it against TTU.
Predictions
David Gardner: Texas Tech
David Kenyon: Texas Tech
Kerry Miller: Texas Tech
Elliott Pohnl: Texas Tech
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Kamau StokesSue Ogrocki/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 UC Irvine (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
Kansas State Wins If…
It out-defends UC Irvine. Both of these teams are lackluster on offense and strong on D, but Kansas State has the fourth-most efficient defense in the country. The Wildcats have held eight consecutive opponents to 64 points or fewer with a combination of steals (8.3 per game) and relentless three-point defense (27.7 percent).
Kansas State may well struggle to score 60 in this game, but it could still win by holding UC Irvine to 50.
UC Irvine Wins If…
Kansas State has one of its typical poor shooting performances. UC Irvine leads the nation in two-point field-goal defense, but it also limits assists and three-point attempts at a top-15 level, per KenPom. To beat this Anteaters D, you basically either need to get hot from three-point range or create offense for yourself with mid-range jumpers.
Can the Wildcats do either? They have been held below 60 points 11 times this season, including the Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State. And with Dean Wade doubtful to play, KSU’s mid-range game gets a lot worse. Wade is also the lone Wildcat who shoots 37 percent or better from three-point range.
Most Important Players Are…
Barry Brown for Kansas State and Jonathan Galloway for UC Irvine. Brown is KSU’s primary driver and its best interior scorer (if Wade is out). He also leads the team in steals. Galloway is Irvine’s primary interior defender and its most efficient scorer. If he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 points, eight rebounds and three blocks, the Anteaters will be in great shape.
Predictions
David Gardner: UC Irvine
David Kenyon: UC Irvine
Kerry Miller: UC Irvine
Elliott Pohnl: UC Irvine
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BILL FEIG/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Colgate (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Tennessee Wins If…
It gets into any sort of offensive rhythm early. Tennessee doesn’t need to play its best game to get a lot of buckets against a Colgate defense that ranks 203rd in adjusted efficiency. Heck, when it played the team currently ranked No. 205 in that metric (Eastern Kentucky), Tennessee waltzed to a 95-67 victory.
The Volunteers just need to see some shots fall early. If they have at least 18 points by the midway point of the first half, we might as well call this game and start the next one. But if it’s an 11-9 type of score after 10 minutes, doubts and nerves will start to creep in—and the deluge of tweets about not trusting Rick Barnes in the tournament will begin. Feed Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield early and often and blow this thing wide open.
Colgate Wins If…
It exploits Tennessee’s two biggest weaknesses to an absurd degree. The Volunteers are average at defending the three-point arc and slightly below-average in terms of defensive rebounding. Enter Colgate, which shot nearly 39 percent from distance and ranks just outside of the top 100 in offensive rebounding. As luck would have it, two of the Raiders’ biggest strengths match up nicely with two of the Vols’ biggest weaknesses.
Colgate has five players who have made at least 40 three-pointers this season, and the Raiders will be calling upon those guys a ton—just like they did in the November loss to Syracuse (40 three-point attempts, 11 two-point attempts). But even if they drill 16 of those 40 attempts from deep, that’s still only 48 points. They’ll need to find at least 33 more to keep up with the 80 or more that Tennessee will score. It’s a fine starting point, though.
Most Important Players Are…
Jordan Bone for Tennessee and Jordan Burns for Colgate. Veteran point guards are almost always the most important player for No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the first round, as they must calm the team down and get the train back on track if upset juices start flowing through the arena. For Colgate, Burns made the most threes this season and will be the one leading that perimeter charge.
Predictions
David Gardner: Tennessee
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Elliott Pohnl: Tennessee
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De’andre HunterChuck Burton/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Gardner-Webb (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV) in Columbia, South Carolina
Virginia Wins If…
God doesn’t hate Tony Bennett.
Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Virginia is 165-31, excluding the NCAA tournament. That’s an 84.2 winning percentage that has produced four regular-season ACC titles and two conference tournament championships. During that same time, Bennett is 7-5 in the NCAA tournament, including last year’s historic/horrific first-round loss to UMBC.
But this is the best team in the country, facing an opponent that is terrible at both rebounding and defending the three-point arc. Barring some sort of divine intervention, the Cavaliers should win this by 20.
Gardner-Webb Wins If…
It the three-point battle plays out like it did last year for UMBC. Just about the only thing the Retrievers did well last season was shoot three-pointers, and they took that to an extreme by hitting 12-of-24 against Virginia—while the Cavaliers shot 4-of-22.
Gardner-Webb could replicate the first half of that, as it shot better than 37 percent from downtown this year. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs start draining them early, it will be hard for Virginia to avoid the “Oh no, here we go again” feeling.
Most Important Players Are…
Jack Salt for Virginia and David Efianayi for Garnder-Webb. The Runnin’ Bulldogs don’t play anyone taller than 6’6″, so Salt (and Jay Huff, for that matter) should be able to do whatever he darn well pleases in the post. Efianayi is the eldest and most accurate of G-W’s three primary three-point shooters.
Predictions
David Gardner: Virginia
David Kenyon: Virginia
Kerry Miller: Virginia
Elliott Pohnl: Virginia
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C.J. MassinburgJeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Buffalo vs. No. 11 Arizona State (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 4 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Buffalo Wins If…
It keeps turnovers under control. The Bulls run into trouble when they lose the turnover battle, including the close call against Central Michigan in the Mid-American Conference tournament, They almost lost that game despite shooting 73.5 percent from inside the arc and finishing plus-17 in rebound margin.
Buffalo is usually sure-handed, but it does have lapses. That doesn’t figure to be a major issue in this game, though, because Arizona State’s defense is average in terms of steals and turnovers.
Arizona State Wins If…
It can force Buffalo to play a physical game. The Sun Devils love fouls. Drawing them. Committing them. It doesn’t matter. As long as both teams spend a lot of time at the free-throw line, it keeps opponents from getting into any sort of offensive rhythm.
That isn’t Buffalo’s style. The Bulls prefer to get out and run on offense, playing a clean game without many fouls or turnovers. However, they did win games against West Virginia and Syracuse earlier this season, and both of those teams are physical. Arizona State will need more than just that to win the game, but a whistle-fest does seem to favor the Sun Devils.
Most Important Players Are…
C.J. Massinburg for Buffalo and Romello White for Arizona State. If there are a lot of fouls, Massinburg will be indispensable as Buffalo’s best free-throw shooter. Meanwhile, White’s defensive presence in the paint could set the tone for the game.
Predictions
David Gardner: Buffalo
David Kenyon: Buffalo
Kerry Miller: Buffalo
Elliott Pohnl: Buffalo
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Ethan HappDylan Buell/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Oregon (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
Wisconsin Wins If…
It limits turnovers and it rides Ethan Happ hard. Oregon gets a lot of steals, but Wisconsin (per usual) is one of the most sure-handed teams, rarely committing turnovers. The Badgers should be able to handle the first part of this request, and they have never been shy about obliging the latter.
Wisconsin hasn’t faced much zone defense this season, but Happ is a one-man zone-buster. In six games against Maryland (two), Iowa (two), Xavier and Savannah State—all listed as either “some zone” or “mostly zone” by KenPom—Happ averaged 18.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists while Wisconsin went 5-1. All three numbers are slightly higher than his season averages, and that’s because his affinity for passing out of the post is so hard for zone defenses to handle.
Oregon Wins If…
It continues to thrive on defense. In the Pac-12, it’s hard to know whether a team was good on D or if it just benefited from playing terrible offenses, but Oregon has held its last eight opponents (all wins) to 54.3 points. Those teams collectively shot 34.6 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from three-point range.
Wisconsin is no stranger to power outages on offense, either. The Badgers rank outside the top 300 in free-throw percentage, free-throw rate and offensive rebound percentage, and they are barely in the top 200 in two-point percentage. The last time they scored at least 70 points in regulation was January 23—15 games ago.
Most Important Players Are…
Happ for Wisconsin and Kenny Wooten for Oregon. Can Wooten (3.4 blocks per 40) contest Happ’s shots and still stay out of foul trouble? Can Happ (46.5 percent) convert the free throws when he does get fouled? Most tournament games feature intriguing perimeter battles, but this game ought to be decided in the post.
Predictions
David Gardner: Oregon
David Kenyon: Wisconsin
Kerry Miller: Oregon
Elliott Pohnl: Wisconsin
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Sam MerrillDavid Becker/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Washington (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT) in Columbus, Ohio
Utah State Wins If…
It can handle Washington’s ball pressure. The Huskies rank second in the nation in steal percentage, averaging just a shade under 9.0 per game. But they went 5-6 against opponents that committed 14 turnovers or fewer (compared to 21-2 otherwise).
Fourteen is a magic number for Utah State too, as it went 24-2 when committing 14 turnovers or fewer and just 4-4 when it was more careless with the ball.
Washington Wins If…
It can crack Utah State’s interior defense. Washington often struggled to score against bad defenses, so this might be asking too much of the Huskies. Utah State ranks top five in both defensive rebounding percentage and two-point field-goal defense. Noah Dickerson and Co. are going to have their hands full with Neemias Queta.
Washington also needs to keep its own defensive rebounding woes under control, as the Huskies give up a lot of second-chance opportunities as a byproduct of their aggressive pursuit of blocked shots.
Most Important Players Are…
Sam Merrill for Utah State and Matisse Thybulle for Washington. Merrill averages better than 21 points, four rebounds and four assists per game, is lethal from the free-throw line and doesn’t commit many turnovers. Thybulle might be the best individual defender in the country.
Predictions
David Gardner: Washington
David Kenyon: Utah State
Kerry Miller: Washington
Elliott Pohnl: Utah State
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Zion WilliamsonNell Redmond/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 North Dakota State (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbia, South Carolina
Duke Wins If…
Neither 2012 Lehigh nor 2014 Mercer shows up. Even with two national championships in the past decade, Duke fans can’t take first-round games for granted because of those previous colossal upsets.
However, this team is much better than those previous versions of Duke, and North Dakota State doesn’t have a CJ McCollum and isn’t anywhere near as good as that Mercer squad was. As long as there isn’t some major injury in the first five minutes that saps the life out of the Blue Devils, they’ll cruise to victory.
North Dakota State Wins If…
A Bison miracle happens.
This team has not beaten a KenPom top-150 opponent yet this season, and it lost by 42 to Gonzaga in its only game against an opponent of Duke’s caliber. North Dakota State’s defense is dreadful and it doesn’t get many offensive rebounds. It does take and make a ton of threes, but Duke has a top-10 three-point defense to match. There isn’t much reason for optimism here. But the Bison did mess around and give Gonzaga a decent game when they were a No. 15 seed in 2015.
Most Important Players Are…
Zion Williamson for Duke and Jared Samuelson for North Dakota State. Have you heard of this Williamson guy? He seems pretty good. Samuelson is NDSU’s best three-point shooter, and the Bison will need him to make at least eight to have any hope of pulling off the upset.
Predictions
David Gardner: Duke
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Elliott Pohnl: Duke
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Joe Murphy/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Georgia State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Houston Wins If…
Its three-point defense holds up. At 27.6 percent, Houston has done a better job defending the arc than every team not named Virginia. That should spell trouble for Georgia State, which does most of its damage from the perimeter. The Panthers went 1-5 when shooting worse than 32 percent from distance, and most of those losses were blowouts.
Going inside isn’t much of a Plan B, though, as Houston ranks fifth in two-point defense and 20th in block percentage. Similar to Michigan, the Cougars aren’t that great on offense, but scoring against this team is a nightmare.
Georgia State Wins If…
It out-rebounds Houston and shoots at least 80 percent from the free-throw line—neither of which is a likely development. Although Georgia State should spend a fair amount of time at the charity stripe, since Houston has some foul-committing problems.
The Panthers (65.6 percent) are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the tournament, and their average rebounding margin (negative-6.1) figures to be a major problem against Houston (positive-7.3). If they can overcome those Achilles’ heels, though, they have five players averaging at least 11 points per game. Even against this great Houston defense, they’re bound to find some points.
Most Important Players Are…
Corey Davis for Houston and D’Marcus Simonds for Georgia State. These are the leading scorers who will likely be going head-to-head for most of the night. Both stars are looking to make up for lackluster showings in their conference championship games on Sunday.
Predictions
David Gardner: Houston
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Elliott Pohnl: Houston
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Reggie Perry (1)Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Liberty (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:27 p.m. ET (truTV) in San Jose, California
Mississippi State Wins If…
It pushes around a smaller Liberty team. Scottie James (6’8″) is the only big man on the Flames roster, and he’ll be looking up at Mississippi State’s trio of 6’10” Reggie Perry, 6’10” Aric Holman and 6’11” Abdul Ado, each of whom logs a lot of minutes.
In three of four games against major-conference opponents this season, Liberty was destroyed on the glass. Now, it needs to deal with one of the better offensive rebounding and shot-blocking frontcourts in the tournament. As long as the Bulldogs put that size to good use, they should be able to keep the upset-minded Flames at bay.
Liberty Wins If…
It controls the pace and maintains its high-efficiency shooting against a quality foe. Liberty usually plays at one of the slowest tempos of any team, but in losses to Alabama, Georgetown and Vanderbilt, the Flames let the pace of play get away from them. Also, in those three games, they were well below their season average in either two-point or three-point percentage, which did them no favors.
But in the two wins over Lipscomb and the road win over UCLA, the Flames were able to play at their pace and had shooting marks more in line with their norm. If this game is 65 possessions or fewer, they’ll have a chance.
Most Important Players Are…
Perry for Mississippi State and James for Liberty. If it’s a 65-possession game because Perry and the Bulldogs keep extending possessions with offensive rebounds, that won’t be so great for Liberty. James will be in charge of keeping that under control and will be a big part of Liberty’s efforts to score efficiently, as he shoots better than 70 percent inside the arc.
Predictions
David Gardner: Mississippi State
David Kenyon: Liberty
Kerry Miller: Mississippi State
Elliott Pohnl: Liberty
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Coby WhiteGerry Broome/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Iona (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT) in Columbus, Ohio
North Carolina Wins If…
It can maintain decades of consistency in this situation and against this type of opponent. Since the beginning of KenPom data in 2002, North Carolina has never lost to a team ranked 160th or lower. Even when the Tar Heels went 8-20 in 2001-02, their worst loss was to No. 121 Florida State. And Iona is ranked 198th this year.
Moreover, North Carolina has not lost a first-round NCAA tournament game since 1999, and Roy Williams is 28-0 in the first round in his career. Also, this team is much, much better than Iona in just about every way.
Iona Wins If…
Something even more shocking than UMBC over Virginia needs to happen this year.
Iona’s best win of the season was against KenPom No. 189 Hartford. The Gaels only played three games against KenPom top 100 teams and lost each one by a double-digit margin. Worst of all, Iona’s preferred fast pace of play isn’t going to be any problem for North Carolina, as the Tar Heels push the tempo even more than the Gaels do. This is the worst draw Iona could have gotten.
Most Important Players Are…
Coby White for North Carolina and Ben Perez for Iona. The Tar Heels shouldn’t need much from White in this game, but he is the player they could least afford to lose to an opening weekend injury, a la Kendall Marshall in 2012. If something unbelievable is going to happen for Iona, it would probably need to start with Perez draining a ton of threes.
Predictions
David Gardner: North Carolina
David Kenyon: North Carolina
Kerry Miller: North Carolina
Elliott Pohnl: North Carolina
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Marcus Evans (2)Frank Franklin II/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 VCU vs. No. 9 UCF (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbia, South Carolina
VCU Wins If…
This is a rock fight won by the best defense. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in defensive effective field-goal percentage, so you’re just asking for trouble if you bet the over here.
In addition to eFG%, VCU forces a lot of turnovers—what else is new?—and does a great job of keeping threes from even being attempted. UCF isn’t great at anything on offense aside from drawing fouls, so it could have a lot of trouble putting points on the board.
UCF Wins If…
Marcus Evans is playing at less than full strength for VCU. Evans left the A-10 tournament loss to Rhode Island with a knee injury, though he is expected to play in this one.
How healthy will the leading scorer and distributor for the Rams’ anemic offense be, though? VCU already doesn’t shoot well and struggles with turnovers. Put that unit on the floor with a leader playing at maybe 90 percent health against UCF’s defense and things could get ugly.
Most Important Players Are…
Marcus Santos-Silva for VCU and Tacko Fall for UCF. What’s a rock fight without a tussle in the paint? Santos-Silva had 26 points and 22 rebounds in VCU’s last game and has been an outstanding offensive rebounder all season. Standing in his path is merely a 7’6″ Fall, who blocks shots and draws fouls at a high rate.
Predictions
David Gardner: UCF
David Kenyon: VCU
Kerry Miller: UCF
Elliott Pohnl: UCF
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Marial ShayokCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Ohio State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:50 p.m. ET (TBS) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Iowa State Wins If…
Threes are falling. Sure, that applies to every team to some extent, but especially to the Cyclones, who have five players with more than 40 triples this season. Virginia transfer Marial Shayok has been the top guy with 68 makes, and he is surrounded by teammates capable of shouldering that load, too. Even starting center Michael Jacobson has made 16 threes and canned both of his attempts in the Big 12 championship game.
Iowa State does a lot of things well on offense, but even an average night of three-point shooting from the Cyclones will be tough for Ohio State’s offense to match.
Ohio State Wins If…
It suddenly wakes up from an 11-week slumber. The Buckeyes lost 13 of their final 20 games. Save for one home game against Iowa, NCAA tournament teams consistently blew them out, and they lost to the likes of Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern.
But this team was good at one point. Ohio State won road games against Cincinnati and Creighton with great defense. It also crushed Minnesota and UCLA en route to a 12-1 start to the season. The fight they displayed late in the season—coming back from a huge deficit to force overtime against Wisconsin, beating Indiana and staying within shouting distance of Michigan State—may have been a sign the Buckeyes are coming out of hibernation.
Most Important Players Are…
Tyrese Haliburton for Iowa State and Kaleb Wesson for Ohio State. Haliburton’s freshman-year stats (7.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 44.1% 3PT, 4.6 assists/turnover) aren’t all that different from what Monte Morris did in his first season at Iowa State, and he was an indispensable part of Iowa State’s offense for four years. Wesson is Ohio State’s star player, and he is someone who could make this game mighty interesting with a 25-point, 12-rebound effort.
Predictions
David Gardner: Iowa State
David Kenyon: Ohio State
Kerry Miller: Iowa State
Elliott Pohnl: Iowa State
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Kerry BlackshearRobert Franklin/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 Saint Louis (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:57 p.m. ET (truTV) in San Jose, California
Virginia Tech Wins If…
Justin Robinson’s return doesn’t somehow mess things up. The senior point guard has been out with a foot injury since late January, and the Hokies have had some ups and downs without him. He’s back now, and that might make Virginia Tech a threat for a deep run.
Even if it doesn’t immediately help the offense, as long as it doesn’t hurt them for some reason, they should win this game. The Hokies only went 7-5 without him, but all five losses were close games against KenPom top 35 teams. They also won a home game against Duke. Saint Louis (KenPom No. 104) is a big step down from what they have been facing lately.
Moreover, the Billikens are extremely unlikely to capitalize on Virginia Tech’s biggest weakness: its three-point defense. SLU ranks in the bottom 10 percent nationally in both three-point percentage and three-point rate on KenPom. If the Billikens come out and drain a dozen threes in this game, it would be one of the most unpredictable developments of the first round.
Saint Louis Wins If…
It breaks Virginia Tech’s will to fight with defense and rebounding. This team does have a strong defense. It held Houston, Seton Hall, Butler and Oregon State each below 70 points. And led by Hasahn French, Saint Louis rebounds well on both ends of the floor.
The Billikens will also need to make more shots than they usually do, but asking them to out-shoot Virginia Tech is a foolish request. They need to dominate in other areas and hope that shooting isn’t their downfall.
Most Important Players Are…
Kerry Blackshear for Virginia Tech and Javon Bess for Saint Louis. Blackshear will be VT’s most important player in every round because he is its only legitimate frontcourt presence. Plus, he does a little bit of everything. Bess is the one Billiken who is actually efficient on offense, although even he doesn’t shoot well. It’s mostly because of his minuscule turnover rate.
Predictions
David Gardner: Virginia Tech
David Kenyon: Virginia Tech
Kerry Miller: Virginia Tech
Elliott Pohnl: Saint Louis
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Jordan NworaJamie Squire/Getty Images
No. 10 Minnesota survived a late push from No. 7 Louisville to secure the first victory of the first round Thursday afternoon in Des Moines, Iowa.
The Golden Gophers, who led by five points at halftime, broke the game open at the start of the second half with three-point shooting, strong play on the glass and frustrating defense.
Five consecutive points from Darius Perry brought the Cardinals within seven points with two minutes remaining, but that was as close as Chris Mack’s team would get.
Minnesota received all 86 of its points from its five starters, all of whom finished with at least 13.
Top Performers
Minnesota freshman Gabe Kalscheur knocked down five three-pointers to lead the Golden Gophers with 24 points. Christen Cunningham scored 22 points in defeat for the Cardinals.
X-Factor
Daniel Oturu provided a nice complement to Jordan Murphy in the paint for Minnesota, as he contributed 13 points, six rebounds and two assists.
Next Round
Minnesota will likely face Big Ten foe and East Region No. 2 seed Michigan State in the second round Saturday.
—Updated by Joe Tansey
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Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
No. 3 LSU’s 16-point halftime lead nearly evaporated in the final minutes of the second half against No. 14 Yale.
The Tigers cruised through the first half and the majority of the second half, but the Bulldogs out of the Ivy League made a late surge after getting hot from deep.
Yale shot 22 percent from beyond the arc on the day, but it made four three-pointers in the final minute to force LSU to close out the game at the free-throw line.
The Tigers answered by hitting nine of their 10 free throws in the last 60 seconds to clinch a spot in the second round.
Top Performers
Skylar Mays led LSU with 19 points, while Tremont Waters added 15. Yale’s Alex Copeland was the game’s top scorer with 24 points.
X-Factor
Kavell Bigby-Williams affected everything Yale did in the paint, as he finished with 10 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks.
Next Round
LSU faces the winner of No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Belmont in Jacksonville, Florida, on Saturday.
—Updated by Joe Tansey
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Bruce PearlTom Pennington/Getty Images
No. 5 Auburn stumbled to the finish line in its one-point victory over No. 12 New Mexico State.
The Tigers appeared to have an easy first-round win in the bag, but the Aggies stormed back from a double-digit deficit to leave the result up in the air until the last second.
Auburn’s late-game execution featured a comedy of errors, including turnovers, missed free throws and fouling a three-point shooter with one second left.
New Mexico State’s Terrell Brown had an opportunity to win the game, but he missed two of his three free throws.
The Aggies had one final shot at victory as the buzzer sounded, but Trevelin Queen missed an open three-point shot off an inbounds play.
Top Performers
Before fouling out, Jared Harper scored 17 points to lead the Tigers, while Johnny McCants led New Mexico State with 16 points.
X-Factor
J’Von McCormick added 16 points off the bench for the Tigers, and he made a pair of clutch free throws with 12 seconds left to keep Auburn ahead.
Next Round
Auburn takes on either No. 4 Kansas or No. 13 Northeastern in the second round Saturday in Salt Lake City.
—Updated by Joe Tansey
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Mfiondu KabengelePhil Sears/Associated Press
No. 4 seed Florida State survived a first-round upset bid from No. 13 Vermont, winning 76-69 after being tied at 27-27 at halftime.
The Seminoles entered the tournament as a contender to make a deep run into the second weekend. But Vermont nearly derailed Florida State’s aspirations and looked like it could shake up plenty of brackets.
Top Performers
Mfiondu Kabengele posted a double-double for Florida State with 21 points and 10 rebounds. Anthony Lamb led Vermont with 16 points.
X-Factor
Terance Mann nearly posted his own double-double for the Seminoles, racking up 19 points and eight rebounds.
Next Round
Florida State awaits the winner of No. 5 Marquette-No. 12 Murray State.
—Updated by Sean Frye
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Cassius WinstonAl Goldis/Associated Press
Spartans fans can exhale.
No. 2 Michigan State survived a massive upset bid from No. 15 Bradley, winning 76-65 thanks to a late second-half run.
The Braves led the Spartans 55-54 with seven minutes left, but an ensuing 9-0 run gave Michigan State enough breathing room to advance to the second round.
Top Performers
Cassius Winston proved to be a steady presence for Michigan State, pouring in 26 points on 8-of-17 shooting.
Elijah Childs led Bradley with 19 points, six rebounds and three blocks.
X-Factor
Michigan State was nearly perfect from the charity stripe, converting 25 of 26 free-throw attempts. The Spartans’ lone miss at the foul line didn’t come until there was only 1:04 remaining in the game.
Next Round
No. 2 Michigan State will face No. 10 Minnesota, which upset No. 7 Louisville, in the second round on Saturday.
—Updated by Sean Frye
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Bruno FernandoPatrick Semansky/Associated Press
No. 11 Belmont got the last shot, but it was a desperation heave from beyond halfcourt that fell short as No. 6 Maryland survived an upset bid, winning 79-77 in the first round.
Belmont led by as much as 10 in the first half. But Maryland slowly wore down a Belmont team already weary from earning its way into the field of 64 in the First Four.
The Terrapins outscored Belmont 45-37 in the second half to advance to the second round.
Top Performers
Jalen Smith had a double-double for Maryland, posting 19 points and 12 rebounds. Bruno Fernando added his own double-double with 14 points and 13 boards.
Belmont’s Dylan Windler gave perhaps the best single-game performance of the tournament thus far, dropping 35 points on 11-of-23 shooting.
X-Factor
Both teams were well versed in ball security as Maryland and Belmont only committed five turnovers apiece. Maryland ended up pulling down 15 offensive rebounds to Belmont’s 10.
Next Round
Maryland will face No. 3 LSU in the second round.
—Updated by Sean Frye
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Dedric LawsonCharlie Riedel/Associated Press
While the No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks’ 14-year streak of Big 12 titles ended this season, Bill Self and Co. are still dancing after they throttled No. 13 Northeastern 87-53 in the first round Thursday.
Northeastern trailed by 12 at halftime. It trimmed its deficit by seven early in the second half, but Kansas ran away into Saturday’s second round.
Top Performers
Dedric Lawson, the unquestioned star for an injury-rocked Kansas, shined with 25 points and 11 rebounds.
Jordan Rowland led Northeastern with 12 points.
X-Factor
Mitch Lightfoot, an energy guy for the Jayhawks, pulled down seven rebounds and scored five points off the bench.
Next Round
No. 4 Kansas will face No. 5 Auburn on Saturday in the second round.
—Updated by Sean Frye
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Ja MorantJessica Hill/Associated Press
Welcome to the Ja Morant Show.
No. 12 Murray State blew past No. 5 Marquette in the first round, cruising to an 83-64 upset.
After leading by seven at halftime, the Racers pulled away to seal a dominant victory. Murray State never trailed in the second half.
Top Performers
Do you even have to ask who the top performer was?
Murray State’s Ja Morant, one of the nation’s most explosive talents, stamped his March Madness legacy with a 17-point, 16-assist, 11-rebound triple-double.
It was the first triple-double in the NCAA tournament since Draymond Green’s in 2012.
He’s also just the eighth player to post a triple-double in the Big Dance since assists became a recorded stat in 1983-84.
X-Factor
Tevin Brown was Murray State’s leading scorer with 19 points. Brown converted five of nine three-pointers and added six rebounds.
Next Round
Murray State will face No. 4 Florida State in the second round Saturday.
—Updated by Sean Frye
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Kevarrius HayesAndy Lyons/Getty Images
Our experts were split on this matchup. But in the end, the Gators pulled off the upset over the Wolf Pack in Des Moines.
Florida went into halftime with a nine-point lead thanks to its strong work hanging onto the ball and ability to force Nevada into nine turnovers during the first 20 minutes.
The Wolf Pack pushed back in the second half and cut the lead to two points with 2:02 remaining. But that was as close as they’d get.
Top Performers
Kevarrius Hayes led a balanced Florida scoring attack with 16 points, while Jalen Hudson chipped in 15. The Martin brothers did the majority of the scoring for Nevada: Cody had 23 points, and Caleb added 19.
X-Factor
Though Nevada didn’t go quietly, Florida’s scoring surge to close out the first half and a 12-0 run early in the second helped crush the confidence of the high-flying Wolf Pack offense, which had averaged 80.7 points heading into its final game.
Next Round
In the West Region’s second round, Florida will now face the winner of Thursday’s game between No. 2 Michigan and No. 15 Montana on Saturday.
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Ashton HagansJohn Raoux/Associated Press
In a battle of two teams of Wildcats, Kentucky cruised to an easy win over Abilene Christian in first-round Midwest Region action in Jacksonville, Florida.
John Calipari‘s crew set a new team record by giving up just 13 points in the first half against a crew that reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history.
Kentucky eased off in the second half but still finished the game shooting 53.6 percent.
Top Performers
With leading scorer P.J. Washington watching from the sidelines due to a foot sprain, freshman guard Keldon Johnson had a big game. Averaging 13.4 points for the year, he tallied 25 on Thursday and added six rebounds. Jaren Lewis had a strong showing for Abilene Christian, with 17 points.
X-Factor
Kentucky senior Reid Thomas nearly recorded a double-double, finishing with 18 points and nine rebounds.
Next Round
In the Midwest Region’s second round, Kentucky will now face the winner of Thursday’s late game between No. 7 Wofford and No. 10 Seton Hall.
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Phil BoothRob Carr/Getty Images
The Villanova Wildcats withstood a strong push but overcame a two-point first-half deficit to advance past Saint Mary’s in first-round South Regional action in Hartford, Connecticut on Thursday.
Jay Wright’s crew relied on 49 percent shooting to take the first step toward defending their 2018 NCAA title against one of the double-digit seeds that many picked for a possible first-round upset.
Top Performers
Senior guard Phil Booth put down 20 points for the Wildcats, while Malik Fitts and Jordan Ford each had 13 for the Gaels.
X-Factor
Considering their recent tournament successes, the Wildcats know their way around March Madness and didn’t get rattled when they fell behind early. By contrast, Saint Mary’s was playing in just its second tournament in the last six years, and the big stage may have overwhelmed the Gaels.
Next Round
In second-round action Saturday, the Wildcats will face the winner of Thursday’s late game between No. 3 Purdue and No. 14 Old Dominion.
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Rui HachimuraJeff Chiu/Associated Press
A 19-0 run to close out the first half was just one example of the dominant performance submitted by the best offensive team in Division I basketball.
Top-seeded Gonzaga had no trouble dispatching Fairleigh Dickinson in West Regional action on Thursday in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Top Performers
Rui Hachimura led the way for the Bulldogs with 21 points and eight rebounds. Mike Holloway Jr. and Elyjah Williams each scored 10 points for the Knights.
X-Factor
Off the bench, junior forward Killian Tillie chipped in with 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting for Gonzaga.
Next Round
In the West Region’s second round, the Bulldogs will face the winner of Thursday’s final game between No. 8 Syracuse and No. 9 Baylor.
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Zavier SimpsonCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Stifling defense was the order of the day as Michigan cruised to a comfortable win over Montana in the final game of the first day of West Regional action in Des Moines, Iowa.
The game was a slightly more decisive case of déjà vu all over again. Michigan dispatched Montana by a score of 61-47 in the first round on its way to runner-up status in 2018.
Top Performers
Senior guard Charles Matthews was dialled in for Michigan, smashing his season average of 12 points a game by hitting 8-of-12 from the field for 22. Montana had three players hit double digits, led by Sayeed Pridgett with 17 points.
X-Factor
Though Montana is known for its sharpshooting, the Wolverines held the Grizzlies to just 33.3 percent from the field while hitting nearly half of their own shots.
Next Round
In the West Region’s second round, Michigan will face Florida on Saturday.
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Fletcher MageeMike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Is he the next Stephen Curry?
Fletcher Magee broke the NCAA’s all-time record for career three-pointers as Wofford cruised to a comfortable first-round win over Seton Hall in Midwest Regional action in Jacksonville, Florida.
The senior guard went 2-of-4 from downtown in the first half as the Terriers took a 10-point lead into the locker room. His historic trey came 29 seconds into the second half en route to a 7-of-12 performance from beyond the arc.
Thursday’s win is the 21st in a row for Wofford, which is competing in the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in the last 10 years.
Top Performers
Magee led Wofford with 24 points, backed up by 18 from Nathan Hoover. Though he was smothered in the first half, Seton Hall sharpshooter Myles Powell—the only Pirate in double digits—finished the night with a game-high 27 points.
X-Factor
On the defensive end, Wofford did an outstanding job guarding Powell. Averaging 22.9 points prior to Thursday, he went 0-of-5 from long range in the first half and was held to just four points. His strong second half drew the Pirates level at 62-62 with 6:45 remaining before Wofford pulled away for the win.
Next Round
In the Midwest Region’s second round, Wofford will be in for a tough matchup against No. 2 Kentucky on Saturday.
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Carsen EdwardsElise Amendola/Associated Press
Finishing out the first day of March Madness action, another higher-seeded team prevailed as Purdue laid out a convincing win over Old Dominion during first-round South Regional action in Hartford, Connecticut.
Top Performers
Carsen Edwards dominated for the Boilermakers with 26 points. Old Dominion’s two top starters were Ahmad Caver (19) and B.J.Stith (14).
X-Factor
Though Old Dominion was perfect from the foul line, the Monarchs were limited to just six free throws. At the other end of the court, Purdue went 12-of-18.
Next Round
In second-round South Region action on Saturday, Purdue will face No. 6 Villanova
—Updated by Carol Schram
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Tyus BattleJeff Swinger/Associated Press
As one might expect in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, not much differentiated the two sides in a see-saw affair that ultimately saw Baylor prevail—and defy the expectations of our experts—in the West Regional bracket in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Though they took a meager one-point lead into the locker room at halftime, the Bears rode their 53.8 percent shooting to a second-round berth in the NCAA tournament.
Top Performers
Senior Makai Mason led the way with 22 points for Baylor, while Elijah Hughes put up 25 for Syracuse.
X-Factor
Tyus Battle returned to the Syracuse lineup after he missed both ACC tournament games with a back injury. He scored 16 points, but they weren’t enough to help his squad advance.
Next Round
In the West Region’s second round, Baylor will face No. 1 Gonzaga on Saturday.
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