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Even though the ink on his $330 million contract was barely dry, Bryce Harper didn’t bother concealing his desire to one day share a Philadelphia Phillies uniform with fellow super-duper star Mike Trout.
Harper, who had been introduced as the newest Phillie on March 2, said this in an interview with 94 WIP on March 5:
SPORTSRADIO 94WIP @SportsRadioWIP
Bryce Harper: “If you don’t think I’m gonna call Mike Trout to come to Philly in 2020, you’re crazy.”
If that remark succeeded in doing anything, however, it may only have hastened the Los Angeles Angels‘ efforts to keep Trout—whose Philadelphia fandom had fueled speculation about his eventual move to Philly long before Harper opened his mouth—from reaching free agency after 2020. Last Wednesday, the Angels secured the two-time American League MVP through 2030 for a record $426.5 million.
Like that, the notion of an imminent Harper-Trout connection in the City of Brotherly Love went up in smoke.
But if there’s a bright side for Harper to look on, it’s that he still has Mookie Betts to hope for instead.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported on March 19, the Boston Red Sox offered Betts an eight-year, $200 million deal following the 2017 season. Betts rejected it and proceeded to boost his value by winning the AL MVP and a World Series ring in 2018.
When might the 26-year-old right fielder look to cash in? As he told reporters (including Matt Kelly of MLB.com): “I don’t expect anything to happen until I’m a free agent.”
That will be after 2020, at which time Betts will be the top free agent on the Trout-less market. Only the highest bidders will be in on him.
Including, perhaps, Harper’s Phillies.
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To a certain extent, it’s still hard to look at Trout and conclude he has an equal in today’s Major League Baseball.
Or in any era, for that matter. The 27-year-old is a seemingly impossible combination of power, speed, hitting acumen and sheer baseball instinct who’s been worth 64.2 wins above replacement through his age-26 season, according to Baseball Reference. This marks the best start to a career for any position player in MLB history.
But if Trout does have a peer on his level right now, it’s Betts. The two are neck and neck in WAR over the last three years:
- Trout: 27.3 WAR
- Betts: 27.0 WAR
At least in 2016 and 2017, Betts could only keep pace with Trout because of his baserunning and defense. Indeed, he’s racked up MLB-best totals in baserunning runs and defensive runs saved since 2016.
Offensively, however, there used to be no contest between Trout and Betts. The latter put up an .851 OPS and 55 home runs in ’16 and ’17. The former, a 1.025 OPS and 62 homers.
Then 2018 happened. Trout slammed 39 homers with an MLB-high 1.088 OPS, but Betts kept pace better than most with a 1.078 OPS and 32 homers.
This is outsized production for a guy who’s listed at only 5’9″, 180 pounds, but it gets at how Betts is an exceptional baseball-playing machine. He’s always been a great athlete, and lately he’s been merging an ultraselective approach with an improving feel for the barrel.
Statcast has been tracking “barrels,” which are essentially batted balls that have an ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity, since 2015. Last year, Betts produced more of them for each pitch he swung at than Trout or anyone else:
Combined with his usual baserunning and defensive excellence, Betts’ offensive surge pushed him to 10.9 WAR. That was the best of his career, as well as the best of any player in 2018.
If the question is what separates Trout from Betts right now, the best answer is “not much.” Betts is presently as good a hitter and a better baserunner and defender. The only practical advantage Trout has on Betts is that he plays center field.
Barring a total fall from grace over the next two years, Betts is therefore going to enter the 2020-2021 offseason market with both superstar credentials and youth (he’ll be coming off his age-27 season) to support a quest for a $300-400 million megadeal.
The Red Sox will presumably be first in line to pay Betts. They know better than anyone what he’s capable of. And while they have some big salaries (namely David Price and Chris Sale) on their post-2020 books, their organizational wallet is thick enough to afford further huge salaries for Betts.
But if anyone is going to steal Betts from Boston, why not the Phillies?
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They’re yet another thick-walleted franchise, and the offseason splurge that brought in Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto and David Robertson and extended Aaron Nola didn’t wreck their long-term financial flexibility. After 2019, Harper will be their only player making more than $25 million per year.
Technically, the Phillies are set in their outfield with Harper, McCutchen and Odubel Herrera each under contract through 2021. But given how much Herrera’s star has faded, the Phillies might not have any qualms about jettisoning him to make room for Betts. Further, the ultracompetitive nature of the National League East could move such an arrangement away from “luxury” and closer to “necessity.”
Whether Harper’s approval is there could be immaterial for the Phillies front office, but why wouldn’t he approve?
The 2015 National League MVP doesn’t go way back with Betts like he does with Trout—the two became friends while playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2011—but he didn’t sign a 13-year deal with the Phillies just so he could recruit friends.
As he said in his 94 WIP interview, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki:
“I think that’s one thing about this contract that I’m able to do. Having 13 years into place, I’m able to help recruit guys to this organization. … And for me, I can be able to talk to Trout or whoever it is, big-name free agent or whoever wants to come to Philly or is thinking about coming to Philly, I can say, ‘Hey, this is the place to be. This is where the fans are great, ownership understands it, our manager is awesome.'”
Betts will fall under the category of a “big-name free agent,” and there wouldn’t necessarily have to be an awkward confrontation between him and Harper over who gets to play right field. Betts could play center for one year until McCutchen’s deal ends, and then he could slide to right while Harper slides to left.
If Harper’s cool with that, then it’s not too soon for him to start looking forward to one day sharing an outfield and a lineup with a player who’s not quite Trout, but who’s almost Trout.
He just might want to keep it on the down-low this time.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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