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March will be critical for a handful of NBA draft prospects who’ll need to make strong final impressions before the June 20 event.
They’ll want to ease concerns that have cropped up through February. And the upcoming month offers opportunities to do so with high-stakes settings in the conference and NCAA tournaments.
These prospects could make or lose millions of dollars based on their stretch-run performances while NBA teams finalize their in-season evaluations.
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Gerry Broome/Associated Press
Draft ceiling: No. 3
Draft floor: Late lottery
Once Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are off the board, the team drafting third overall will at least look at Cam Reddish. But a disappointing March could be costly, given his frustrating inconsistency and inefficiency through February.
Reddish won’t want scouts to look back on his full body of work and see a 36.5 percent field-goal mark, 33.6 three-point percentage, more turnovers (76) than assists (61) and a player who buckled when the pressure was highest. Because with a month left of college basketball, Reddish should feel a sense of urgency in terms of his draft stock and helping Duke advance in the postseason.
He will benefit from scouts’ having seen him before college—whether it was on the high school All-Star circuit or during the U19 World Cup. Reddish established coveted long-term potential before he ever played an NCAA game, and that should help prevent him from falling too far, regardless of how the rest of his season goes.
But it will seem like less of a gamble to draft Reddish in the top five if he dials back in during the ACC and NCAA tournaments. And the upcoming games without the injured Williamson (knee) are also crucial, as it gives Reddish extra on-ball opportunities to create and scouts more chances to evaluate him in a featured role.
With breakout prospects like Murray State’s Ja Morant, Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver and Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter, plus another handful freshmen who’ve been more effective, another underwhelming stretch could lead to a mini-slide down boards for Reddish.
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Gerry Broome/Associated Press
Draft ceiling: Top 10
Draft floor: 20s
March could make or cost Nassir Little millions this June.
Does he start to look like the top-five pick many projected he’d be in October? Or will he continue to trade flashes of upside with lengthy stretches of low- to no-impact play?
Little, who’s averaging 9.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and shooting 11-of-43 from three, has a month to show teams there’s more to his sales pitch aside from his 6’6″, 220-pound size and athleticism.
If he caught on offensively—particularly when the stakes are highest—it could recreate optimism from scouts regarding Little’s development and skill set, which he’s had a difficult time showcasing in a bench role.
He’s earned a pass from some evaluators because of that role. But at some point, Little needs to make more plays at both ends. He ranks in the 17th percentile out of a spot-up position and shoots 25.4 percent on half-court jumpers with totals of 23 assists, 17 steals and 16 blocks in 29 games.
Little will still go in the first round based on potential, but a pick in the Nos. 6-10 range will make roughly between $10 million and $15 million over his first three years. Picks in the 20s receive less than $2.5 million per season. Little could wind up on either side of the draft board based on his March output.
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Leon Bennett/Getty Images
Draft ceiling: Lottery
Draft floor: 20s
After five games, Kevin Porter Jr. emerged as a potential one-and-done prospect with enough upside to crack 2019’s top 10. And then he hurt his quad, missed a month and earned a team suspension before he returned to a bench role, which he’s been relatively quiet in while USC has drifted further from relevance.
A strong March could help validate the flashes scouts saw in November, when he was creating and converting pull-ups, step-backs and athletic finishes at the rim.
Heading into March, he’s 5-of-16 out of isolation, and ranks in the 41st percentile out of spot-ups and the 50th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. His inconsistent execution has made it tougher to feel confident in the small sample size of moves he was pulling off earlier in the season.
Porter won’t have to carry USC to regain support, particularly given the weak projected draft class. But the 7.9 points per game he’s averaged since January 10 haven’t been enough for him to build any firm draft stock.
He’s a wild card—an obvious talent without substance on his resume. Porter can add some in March with more consistent scoring outputs that impact winning.
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Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images
Draft ceiling: First round
Draft floor: Second round or back to school
A month may not even be enough time for Quentin Grimes to win back scouts’ support, which has dwindled since November.
He was Kansas’ star recruit—a projected lottery pick after strong showings at the Nike Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand Classic and McDonald’s All-American Game and winning MVP for Team USA during the FIBA U18 Americas Championship.
His stock has fallen considerably since he arrived at Kansas, where he’s looked more like a master of none than a versatile combo guard. Grimes is shooting 39.2 percent and 34.2 percent from three with 55 assists against 56 turnovers and 15 steals.
He’s also still 18 years old, 6’5″, 210 pounds and making 1.4 threes in 26.7 minutes per game. He’s also had some notable performances, including a 21-point game against Michigan State to open the season and Saturday’s 17-point effort against Oklahoma State.
With Lagerald Vick away from the team (personal matters), there won’t be a shortage of opportunities for Grimes to impact games. He needs scouts to hit refresh on their evaluations.
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Tony Ding/Associated Press
Draft ceiling: 20s
Draft floor: Second round or back to school
Jordan Poole earned acclaim last March with a spectacular buzzer-beater to sink Houston in the NCAA tournament. He’ll need more magic this March to have a first-round case for 2019.
His shot-making and occasional shooting creativity off slick step-back jumpers and drives hint at enticing potential. Poole’s consistency and impact have wavered too much, however, making it difficult to buy into him as a surefire NBA fit.
The defensive lapses don’t help, and it seems unlikely he’ll fix them in a month. However, Poole can raise his stock with more 15- to 20-point outputs, serving as a reliable top option for Michigan.
Ranking in the 91st percentile out of spot-ups and the 77th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, he can generate offense while working on or off the ball. And when he’s on, the eye test detects a pro-level scorer. Off nights illuminate poor shot selection and decision-making that would seem to require more years of development at Michigan.
The Wolverines should be a high NCAA tournament seed capable of running deep into March or early April. The stage and opportunity will be there for Poole. Struggling to capitalize could mean scouts will recommend another season in college.
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Steven Ryan/Getty Images
Draft ceiling: 20s
Draft floor: Second round/undrafted
Production wasn’t enough for scouts last year when they evaluated Shamorie Ponds, who didn’t receive an invite to the combine despite his 21.6 points-per-game average.
St. John’s 16-17 record overshadowed that scoring total—as did Ponds’ 25.3 percent three-point shooting.
He appeared to have returned a sharper player this season, leading the team a 12-0 record while making more jumpers, raising his assists and reducing his turnovers.
But since then, St. John’s has dropped 10 games, and Ponds played poorly in a handful of them—including a highly scouted matchup with Duke, which held him to 3-of-11 shooting. Questions have resurfaced about his floor game as well as his potential to efficiently execute against NBA defenders given his 6’1″, 180-pound size and score-first mentality. He’s also made just 24.1 percent of his threes since January 19.
Ponds needs to rediscover his shot and take more control of games’ outcomes. March provides the perfect opportunity to make clutch plays and impact winning.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Basketball Reference and are current as of March 3.
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