Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Everything was so simple just a few weeks ago.
The Chiefs, Rams and Saints were unstoppable forces of nature. The Patriots, as they often do, overcame early-season stumbles and shifted into dynasty mode.
Those four teams faced off in a round robin of midseason game-of-the-year-type thrillers that verified that they were the NFL‘s aristocracy. Everyone else was playing for either pride or the future.
But then came the December Revolution, when the playoff picture descended into chaos.
The Rams and Patriots each have suffered back-to-back losses. The Chiefs lost to the surging Chargers. The Saints were nearly shut out by the Cowboys and barely escaped Carolina with a win on Monday night. Likely upstarts like the Steelers and Vikings flopped in their bids to take advantage of the turmoil.
Welcome to the Year with No Unbeatable Teams. Good luck figuring out what happens next.
Super Bowl matchups that felt inevitable a few weeks ago—think Rams-Chiefs after their Week 11 epic—are now in jeopardy. Matchups that would have prompted a chuckle in October, like Bears-Chargers, are now trendy.
But everything could change in the final two weeks. After all, the Texans and Cowboys have gone from up-and-comers to potential also-rans at the hands of the ever-improving Colts, who are capable of beating anyone on a good day but of being shut out by the Jaguars on a bad one.
Among the wild-card wannabes, the Titans and Dolphins have surprising upsets on their resumes, and no one wants Russell Wilson to visit them in January, or to see Lamar Jackson turn into a read-option version of Playoff Flacco or Nick Foles turn into Nick Foles.
And, of course, it’s ridiculous to count out the Chiefs, Patriots, Rams or Saints just because of an upset or two.
Making sense of the Year with No Unbeatable Teams is an impossible task. But we can try to organize the issues, compartmentalize the confusion and make some educated guesses about how we got here and what happens next.
Young quarterback conundrums
Jared Goff is a fantastic quarterback, unless he’s pressured up the middle or the temperature drops below the freezing point in Los Angeles (about 55 degrees). Then he suddenly morphs into Blake Bortles.
The Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t been perfect this season, but he has thrown for twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.David Banks/Associated Press/Associated Press
Mitchell Trubisky makes two or three impossible plays for every perfectly thrown pass to a free safety. The ratio for Patrick Mahomes is more like 5-to-1, but better defenses have found ways to limit the no-look passes and force enough mistakes to make Mahomes mortal.
Dak Prescott is a perfectly capable quarterback as long as he never has to convert a 3rd-and-long. Jackson’s read-option warranty is about to expire.
All of these playoff-picture quarterbacks remain susceptible to growing pains, to defenses adjusting to them and forcing them to make their first set of counter-adjustments. They are all uncertain, undefined variables in big-game situations.
There are plenty of established quarterbacks in the playoff picture, too. But these young quarterbacks have proved that they can beat anyone when they are at their best. We’ll just have to wait and see who is capable of his best when it matters most.
High coaching volatility
Andy Reid is brilliant when designing the ultimate offensive contraption for Mahomes but a nitwit when trying to run out the clock in the final minute.
Matt Nagy is a pioneer when sending defensive linemen onto the field as running backs for a goal-line trick play but too cute by half when a fake punt gets sniffed out or Tarik Cohen fumbles a 3rd-and-1 Wildcat.
Sean McVay was the darling of the internet for rattling off his opponent’s starters a few weeks ago—a trick all of the coaches and half the columnists covering the NFL could perform, but never mind—but now the Bears and Eagles have supposedly figured out his offense.
Bill Belichick is a genius when he…OK, he’s always a genius. But the early-season Cordarrelle Patterson running back experiment sure did get better reviews than the Rob Gronkowski free safety experiment at the end of the Dolphins loss.
Anthony Lynn is, deservedly, a hot Coach of the Year candidate right now. What would you think of him if that last-second two-point conversion against the Chiefs failed?
In his second season on the Los Angeles sideline, head coach Anthony Lynn has the Chargers ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in both offense and defense.Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
Coaching decisions matter more than ever in a year defined by fourth-down conversion attempts, goal-line gambles, daring trickeration and intricate offensive wrinkles. Good and bad decisions in high-leverage situations have a greater impact on the standings than in the old days, when coaching wisdom revolved around punting and settling for field goals.
That means that coaching staffs must peak in December, just as players and rosters must.
Whatever your opinion on fired Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, getting the whole staff on the same page as head coach Mike Zimmer was vital to preserving the team’s playoff hopes.
Frank Reich’s endless creativity puts the Colts in better shape than the Texans, who appear to be running out of ways to keep their four superstars from having to do all the work.
Mike Tomlin ran out of things to say to his Steelers veterans in about 2016, and it shows. If Jason Garrett draws up a brilliant game plan in the postseason, it will be the first of his career. John Harbaugh’s willingness to embrace Jackson and the option may have saved his season and may also end up looking silly in the playoffs.
The smart playoff money is usually on Super Bowl-tested coaches like Belichick. But even that has its pitfalls in a year when Mike McCarthy is watching December games on television.
Tarnished mystiques
The Patriots were the very definition of an Unbeatable Team, a perennial anchor that defined the AFC and NFL hierarchy for practically a generation. Not only does their vulnerability open the door for teams like the Chiefs and Chargers, but it makes victories over the Patriots (Steelers, Titans) a little less impressive and losses to them (Chiefs, Bears) a little less inevitable and excusable.
With their losses to the Chargers, Chiefs and Ravens—to say nothing of the Raiders—the Steelers are not what they used to be, either. The sense of hereditary dynasty isn’t as strong in the NFC, though Aaron Rodgers‘ absence from the playoffs illustrates that no one can coast on reputation anymore.
The Saints possess the best combination of stable and excellent quarterbacking, experienced and innovative coaching and “mystique” (playoff and Super Bowl experience, a withering home-field advantage) right now. They also have the NFL’s best record and a portfolio of impressive wins.
If not for that Cowboys loss, the Saints would be prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. But the Cowboys are one of the teams they may have to defeat to get there, and Monday night’s near disaster suggests that the Saints may have peaked a little too early this year.
Living in the present
As well as the Bears have played over the last two weeks, injuries to Eddie Jackson and Bryce Callahan are a cause for concern in their secondary. Going into the playoffs against the Rams and Saints short two defensive backs is hardly an ideal situation.
The Chargers, on the other hand, are experiencing something they are not used to: good injury news. Wide receiver Keenan Allen and running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler should soon return from their various injuries, bringing the offense back to full 2018 strength. The Chargers are playing well and getting healthier in late December. Now that’s an ideal situation.
Making sense of the Year with No Unbeatable Teams means living in the now. What the Chiefs did when they had Kareem Hunt and Mahomes was surprising opponents does not matter anymore. What the Cowboys offense looked like before Amari Cooper doesn’t matter. Forget Joe Flacco and jittery early-season Trubisky. Every injury matters. Every return from an injury matters.
The Saints appear to have the talent and experience to reach the Super Bowl, but they also have a few surprising losses on their season resume.Mark LoMoglio/Associated Press
Also, clear the slate of all the easy wins: The Patriots dunking all over their AFC East serfs, Saints and Rams laughers against weaklings, most of what the Texans have done and virtually all of what the Vikings have done.
The season now comes down to playoff games and, over the next two weeks, virtual playoff games like Steelers at Saints, Ravens at Chargers and Colts at Titans. Teams are only as good as they were recently against the best competition.
That’s why there’s so much anarchy right now. All of the best teams have mixed a little terrible with their greatness in recent weeks.
Wanna build a Panthers Super Bowl argument? They beat the Eagles, who beat the Rams. How about the Colts? They beat the Cowboys, who beat the Saints, who beat the Rams, who beat the Chiefs. The Browns? Hey, they beat the Broncos, who beat the Chargers, who may be the best team in the NFL right now.
Anything is possible in a league dominated by young quarterbacks and defined by last-minute gambles, where the superteams aren’t that super and the wild cards are wilder than ever.
Isn’t it wonderful?
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.
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